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新一轮房贷压力测试将启动 银行称没压力

更新时间:2011-11-22 16:40:04 - 来源:苍南房产网 点击数:112630 >> 我要发表评论

新一轮房贷压力测试即将启动之际,记者从消息人士处获悉,此轮房贷压力测试并不会有新的举措或内容,依旧是按照设计的情景假设做风险和盈利空间预测等。各地区、各银行仍会选择自己的压力测试幅度,不会采取“一刀切”的措施。

房贷压力测试将启动

中信银行行长陈小宪20日则表示,启动新一轮房贷压力测试反映监管部门对于房地产风险采取审慎的态度,但并不表明目前房地产贷款现状糟糕、存在较大风险。

房贷压力测试难以标准化

银监会有关人士告诉记者,由于利率管制,因此信贷资产的压力测试比较难做。但是,出于防范利率风险和房地产市场波动的考虑,房地产行业尤其是其中的中长期贷款必须要做压力测试。银监会主席刘明康此前也曾强调过,要持续深入开展房地产及相关行业贷款压力测试。

但是,房贷压力测试及其情景假设要根据每个商业银行各自资产组合、风险承受能力以及风险偏好等进行设计。因此,上述银监会人士称,商业银行只能根据当地房价变动的情况,选择确定自己的压力测试幅度,很难进行标准化的测试,“就我知道,巴塞尔对压力测试也没有形成很好的框架,各个国家、机构都要根据自己的情况和特殊性做压力测试,并没有统一的规定。地区的特殊性大于普遍性。”

为掌握房地产市场波动对商业银行房地产贷款质量的影响,银监会曾于2010年5月份要求商业银行开展了房地产贷款压力测试,分析不同压力情景下(全国房地产价格平均下跌10%、20%、30%)商业银行房地产贷款质量受到的冲击。

分析人士认为,新一轮的压力测试很有可能根据各地房价的波动情况,适当提高压力测试幅度。但是银监会相关负责人此前曾经强调过,各种情景假设不代表银监会对房地产市场走势的判断,也不代表房地产信贷政策可能出现变动。

压力测试是商业银行经常使用的前瞻性风险管理手段之一,是商业银行提升风险管理水平的需要,但并非重要部分。

银行回应:房贷风险可控

对于即将启动的新一轮房贷压力测试,中信银行行长陈小宪20日接受本报记者采访时回应,“觉得没有什么压力”,因为中信银行本身对房地产贷款比较审慎,目前中信银行房地产贷款的比例低于股份制银行的平均水平,“因此我们非常欢迎银监会再启动新一轮的房地产压力测试。”

他同时表示,压力测试只是对未来可能发生情况的想象,银行可依据测试结果提前准备应对措施。这反映监管部门对于房地产风险采取审慎的态度,但并不表明现在房地产类贷款真的那么糟糕,这类贷款不存在非常大的风险问题。

在各大银行的年度业绩发布会上披露的数据显示,房贷风险尚在可控之中。以农行为例,农行副行长郭浩达表示,农行自去年至今已针对房贷进行了6次压力测试,结果显示,轻、中度压力对贷款质量几乎没有影响;在房价整体下跌50%这样的重度压力测试下,造成的不良资产增长也不会超过0.5个百分点。


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